What Do the Midterm Results Mean for Trans People?
It’s good news for the trans community, but don’t expect the GOP to move on from anti-trans messages so easily.
by Evan Urquhart
The full results of the US midterm elections are still being counted, but at least the headlines have been written: In a year expected to overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, Democrats overperformed by a wide margin. It now seems likely Democrats will retain hold of the US Senate. The House of Representatives, however, will swing Republican, but by a smaller margin than anticipated. Several high profile governor races have also gone well for the Democratic candidate, and Democrats have done well in some state and local races. This may make a major difference in terms of policy at the state and local level, at least in swing states.
This is very good for trans people, and the bright side is all the more bright because anti-trans messages were key to the GOP midterm messaging. However, there are still reasons for concern. For one, it’s still possible the GOP could take both the House and Senate (although the legislature’s ability to damage trans people directly would be greatly mitigated by the Presidential veto, and the Democrats exceeding expectations makes Biden less likely to feel conciliatory). Also, in many red states the picture for trans rights is likely to get even grimmer. For example, in Florida, which used to be considered a swing-state, the GOP succeeded as massively as they were expected to. Therefore, targeting of trans people will most likely continue to escalate in Florida and other red states.
The national picture for trans people is much harder to anticipate. In a disappointing election where transphobia was the GOP’s key wedge, one might expect this issue to fall out of favor for their strategists. However, there are many other things for GOP insiders to blame for the lackluster performance yesterday. The overturn of Roe v Wade was clearly a main motivator for Democrats, particularly women. There’s also talk that Donald Trump may be weighing the party down, and that his handpicked candidates were too fringe for mainstream Americans. This means that, because transphobia was never the ex-President’s main focus, it may not be on the chopping block if Trump takes the blame for this failure. In that case, the person who stands to gain most is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who has made transphobia one of his key issues.
There’s also reason for GOP strategists, especially ones who are personally invested in transphobia, to believe all the anti-trans messaging has been successful. Yesterday, we wrote about the public opinion polling which suggests Americans' attitudes have shifted against trans people between 2016 and 2022. While transphobic lies were clearly not enough to ensure a red wave in the midterms, there’s little evidence that Americans have actually rejected those messages. Subjectively, it does feel as if transphobia on the left may have peaked and already begun receding, and polarization helps trans people among strong Democrats. However, transphobic GOP operatives and propagandists may lag in their recognition of that.
Our best guess is that the waves of anti-trans legislation will not let up in states where both the governorship and legislature are controlled by Republicans, and that for now, anti-trans messages will continue to be a strong part of the GOP wedge strategy. However, it’s looking much more possible than it did yesterday that this dynamic could shift before the 2024 presidential election season.